Cambio climático: su impacto en la distribución espacial de puya glomerifera

Abstract

The effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of Puya glomerifera Mez y Sodiro have been evaluated using the climatic parameters of precipitation and temperature in the Cotacachi-Cayapas Ecological Reserve. The number of individual plants was estimated by parcels of 10x10 m2 in five different climatic altitudes that range from 2000 to 4000 meters above sea level, with 500 m intervals. A climate database was created from the Meteorological Yearbooks INAMHI, of stations located near the study site, in order to estimate both monthly and multi-year variations of the two studied parameters, for the years 1990 – 2012. The results show that plant lives at an altitude level that ranges between 3000 - 3500 meters above sea level. Similarly, for the same period, calculations were made with the database provided by the EdGCM software to evaluate its distribution. In the given period, the results overestimated the reals measured at the stations, therefore it was necessary to introduce the calculation of an adjustment factor, whose value for the precipitation was 0.79 and for the temperature, 0.63. Using the same software, a simulation of the variation of temperature and precipitation was done for two long-term periods 2013-2040, and 2013-2070, 28 and 58 years, respectively, projected for Ecuador and then applied to the region of study with the adjustment factors already obtained. With a Climatic Envelope Model (CEM) developed by the authors, the behaviour of Puya glomerifera is evaluated, taking into account the results of the variations of the two climatic parameters investigated. The findings show that the plant would have to adapt to the climatic altitude located between 3500 and 4000 meters above sea level for both investigated periods. Strategies for the conservation of the plant are proposed considering four factors: education, research, monitoring and governance.